2021’s first cyclone likely to form in the Arabian Sea this week

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) Tuesday issued a forecast indicating the possible development of a cyclone in the Arabian Sea around May 16.

If realised, this will be the first cyclonic storm of 2021 to form in the North Indian Ocean region and will acquire the name Cyclone Tauktae, given by Myanmar. May ocean conditions are rife for cyclogenesis in this region.

The Met department has issued a warning of light to moderate rainfall over Lakshadweep, Kerala, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu from Thursday onward lasting till May 16. The rainfall will mainly be associated with the likely formation of a low pressure system and its intensification.

The current location of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is in favour of causing enhanced rainfall over the Arabian Sea, expected to last for a week.

” A low pressure area is very likely to form over the southeast Arabian Sea on the morning of May 14. It is likely to move north-northwestwards across this region adjoining Lakshadweep. It may intensify into a cyclonic storm around May 16,” the latest press statement issued by the IMD on Tuesday, stated.

Rough sea conditions are expected to develop starting Thursday, in view of which, fishermen from these coastal states have been warned against venturing into the sea from Friday onward. Those out in the sea have been urged to return to safety by Wednesday night.

Sea conditions, mainly along the Comorin area and east-central Arabian Sea, will be very rough to high between May 14 and 16. Similar rough sea is also expected along the coasts of Goa and Maharashtra on May 15. Squally winds with speeds ranging between 40 to 50 kms /hr gusting to 60 kms/hr will lash Lakshadweep, Maldives areas Thursday onward. Coasts off Kerala, Goa, Karnataka and Maharahsta would also experience similar gale wind till Sunday, the Met department has warned.

Lakshadweep could experience a tidal wave of about 1m above the astronomical tide during the weekend, with possibility of inundating the low lying areas.